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October 25th, 2008

One Season.Com

Want to buy Kobe Bryant, Yao Ming, or Reggie Bush at a bargain price?  Well now you can.  At OneSeason.com, trading IPO’s and ‘human equities’ with real money is possible.  This innovative virtual market puts a spin on fantasy sports for those inclined to dabble in the stock market.  If you just can’t get enough of losing money in the actual markets, this site may be for you. 

A virtual market where sports players (referred to as SOI’s or Synthetic Ownership Interest) can be bought and sold, and price fluctuates based on trader “interest” screams  market manipulation and plenty of unfair insider trading.  Even so, the idea is novel.  Since this site is fairly new and has just received some national headlines, I’ve kicked in $10 and also received an additional $10 from the site just for signing up. I have read that this site has fewer than 10,000 members.  Who knows, maybe my $12 share of Yao Ming will be a 10 bagger in a few months.

If interested, click on the link above and read through the forum comments.  There is much debate about the legitimacy of the site.  Come to think of it, there is much debate about credit swaps, naked shorting, and questionable insider trading in the real trading world too.

This post is not meant to promote the OneSeason site in any way.  But I will promote creative thought and those who are smart enough, and motivated enough, to pull profit out of thin air. 

Hey, AROD is now trading at $10.50 per share!  Can’t wait for MDNA to start trading!

Sorry for the Madonna reference ;)  

October 20th, 2008

Questcor Pharma Fighting the Tide

One of the better looking microcap charts belongs to Questcor Pharmaceuticals (Stock Symbol: QCOR).  While most of the microcap stocks have taken a similar dive over the last few volatile weeks, QCOR has kept the upward trend alive after some large intraday swings.  Best to watch this one to see if it can take out its previous high with volume.  Most likely it will drift lower so wait for the bargain price before piling in.
 
Questcor Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is a specialty pharmaceutical company that focuses on novel therapeutics for the treatment of diseases and disorders of the central nervous system. The Company’s current commercial CNS product is H.P. Acthar Gel(r), an injectable drug that is approved for the treatment of certain CNS disorders with an inflammatory component, including the treatment of flares associated with multiple sclerosis and is also commonly used in treating patients with infantile spasm, an epileptic syndrome. Questcor is currently evaluating a number of potential opportunities to acquire, license, develop, and co-promote products for CNS disorders that would fit its capital structure and commercial infrastructure. The Company has a registered trademark on H.P. Acthar(r) Gel. Questcor’s operations associated with the production, testing, packaging and distribution of pharmaceutical products are subject to regulation by the FDA.

October 19th, 2008

Market Prediction Analysis (Part 1)

Quazimoto’s Market Direction Indicator was recently put through the paces to determine its accuracy and also to investigate possible alternatives to the current system.  The indicator is based on advancing and declining volume and is based on much of Richard Arms’ research regarding the TRIN or Arms Index.

Market direction is vital to the success of any trader.  Not many individual stocks have a life of their own and swim against the tide.  Knowing where the market is headed prior to making a trade will almost always put you on the right side of the trade.

Reviewing the last nine months, it is quite apparent that this indicator is extremely useful for forecasting market downturns.  75% of this year’s bear markets were picked up on the long term side of the indicator.  This is referred to us as the sell zones.  The buy zones were not nearly as useful, possible due to the downward trend of this market.  Buy zones did pick up the majority of the consolidation areas but the bottom line is that only 20% of these buy zones ended with the market higher in the end.  The long term buy and sell zones are indicated by the stop light on the right sidebar.  This will be changed to give all that follow a more precise indication of market direction.  Reasons for this are apparent in the following analysis.

When number crunching nine months of data, it became obvious that using the short term indicator resulted in more successful trades.  This has more to do with knowing the success rate of the short term indicator rather than its accuracy.

We use daily points gained and lost on the NYSE as our measure of success.  The overall point gain during buy and sell periods, or zones, were used in favor of the number of “up” days versus “down” days in the same period.  Reasons for this are apparent when you consider that one period consisting of the three days may include two “point gain” days and one “point loss” day.  This would be considered a successful buy zone if calculated this way.  But looking within this zone reveals that, for example, Monday was a 23 point gain day, Tuesday was a 50 point gain day, and Wednesday was a 300 point loss day.  Holding a stock during this short cycle could easily wipe out earlier gains due to the massive downdraft on the final day. 

To be fair, we also included in our buy zone, the first day of the new sell zone (and vice versa…also include with a sell zone the first day of a new buy zone) because this transition is not predictable on a day to day basis although a reasonable guess can be made based on the convergence, or divergence of our daily numbers and graph lines. 

The next post will detail the most important results and revelations, including the best use of this market direction indicator.

October 4th, 2008

The Best Market Direction Indicator

Quazimoto’s Market Direction Indicator has done it again.  Ignoring the daily market noise, the indicator successfully predicted the last major downturn.  Take a look at the Nasdaq chart below.  The month of September, minus a few upward anomalies, is down all the way.  Quazi picked up on this around September 4th.  Anyone who has looked at our stop light on the right side of this site could easily follow along by heeding the signal.  Click on the stop light for a more detailed explanation.  As of yesterday the light has turned green indicating buying opportunities are approaching but with the recent wild market swings, the light could easily go back to a cautious yellow.  Stay tuned. 

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