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November 26th, 2008

Give Thanks to the Contrarians

Read Floyd Norris’ article and you will see why he says there has been no place to hide from the collapse of 2008.  With that said, lets give thanks to those stocks that gave refuge if you were lucky or smart enough to be holding them.  The five stocks listed below not only had upward trending price slopes during the year (some of them not so smooth), but they all have a respectable 5 year trend.

UST   +25%
PHLY  +60%
QCOR  +55%
PETS  +50%
PNY   +27%

November 23rd, 2008

Wall Street Master Rule #11


Victor Sperandeo  has been a professional trader for many years and has an unparalleled trading record.  His annualized rate of return for the years 1978 to 1987 are as follows:

1978 - 115.26%
1979 - 74.48%
1980 - 98.49%
1981 - 49.99%
1982 - 127.44%
1983 - 30.79%
1984 - 12.99%
1985 - 9.58%
1986 - 10.72%
1987 - 165.36%

It is one thing to post terrific gains during boom years like the late 1990’s, but this type of consistent trading can only be the result of a disciplined approach.  During these years, Vic posted an incredible  10-year annual rate of return of 70.71% while the S&P posted a bullish 11.5%.

Here is an excerpt for his book, Trader Vic - Methods of a Wall Street Master. 

Rule Number 11:

Never buy just because the price is low.  Never sell just because the price is high.  Avoid thinking in terms like, “This thing is at historical lows, it just can’t go any lower!”  or “This thing just can’t go any higher, I’ve just got to sell it!”  The fact is, unless you see some sign of a change in trend, the chances are that the trend will continue.  When a market is at historical highs or lows, but there is no sign of a change of trend, my advice is to leave it alone and wait for signs of a change of trend.  Trade with the trend and be patient.

That is some good advice in a market that all expect to bottom and reverse.  If a Dow 7700 or 7500 must be the absolute bottom because ‘recent’ technical history says so, think again.  Calling the bottom could prove profitable if your crystal ball is working overtime, but the smart money will wait for a true trend reversal before putting cash on the long side of the trade.

November 16th, 2008

Crash and Burn Heroes

As the market continues with wild up and down swings (mostly down), these two microcaps have been turning a blind eye to the death and destruction in the market.
XTL Biopharmaceuticals Ltd. (Stock Symbol: XTLB) is engaged in the development of therapeutics for the treatment of diabetic neuropathic pain and HCV. XTL is developing Bicifadine, a serotonin and norepinephrine reuptake inhibitor, for the treatment of diabetic neuropathic pain.
Tollgrade Communications, Inc. (Stock Symbol: TLGD) is a provider of hardware and software network assurance testing solutions for the telecommunications and cable broadband industries. The Company provides equipment that enables telephone companies to evaluate problems so they can ultimately repair their wire telephone lines when they are not functioning properly. When the telephone lines are out of service, the Company’s products help to diagnose the problem.

Both of these companies have taken a beating but have been bouncing up off the canvas lately for some nice gains.  If the market decides to head toward its 50 day moving average, these stocks might be a bargain. 

November 12th, 2008

A Dose of Silver Lining

They are not easy to find but here are a couple of stocks that have been on an upward tear for several days now.  Any stock that can endure a day like today is worth a mention…

Omega Navigation Enterprises (Stock Symbol: ONAV)

Meadow Valley Corp. (Stock Symbol: MVCO)

We’d like to see a little more volume but a low volume retracement could lead to more upside if these two decide to come back down to earth.

November 9th, 2008

Banking on a Bottom

If you think we are at a bottom, take a look at some of these bank stocks that are trading under $10.  If anything, many of these might be good, short-term trading fodder.  We will stay neutral on whether the market has bottomed or not.  Overnight positions are at your own risk.

SOV     Sovereign Bank
SNV       Synovus Financial
FED      Firstfed Financial
AIB       Allied Irish Banks
                               BPFH    Boston Private Financial
                               STSA     Sterling Financial
                               BPOP    Popular Inc.
                               TSFG    South Financial Group
                               UCBH    UCBH Holdings

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